Buckinghamshire’s ‘blue wall’ will crumble in the general election, according to a new poll, which estimates that four Conservative MPs will be ousted by Labour.
Tory candidates Steve Baker (Wycombe), Rob Butler (Aylesbury), Iain Stewart (Buckingham and Bletchley) and Ben Everitt (Milton Keynes North) will all lose their seats, according to YouGov.
The polling company also forecasts that Conservative candidate Johnny Luk will lose to Labour in the newly created Milton Keynes Central constituency.
Liberal Democrat Sarah Green is set to hold onto Chesham and Amersham, while Conservatives Joy Morrissey and Greg Smith are expected to win their respective areas of Beaconsfield and the newly formed Mid Buckinghamshire constituency.
The projection for Buckinghamshire’s eight seats is part of YouGov’s new multi-level regression and post-stratification (MRP) model, which uses polling data.
The MRP is not a ‘prediction’ of the July 4 election, according to the firm, but instead is an estimate of the results if an election was held today.
Modelled on responses from 53,334 adults in England and Wales, and 5,541 in Scotland, it predicts a Labour majority of 194 seats for Keir Starmer’s party.
This would be the second largest majority in UK political history after that achieved by former Prime Minster Stanley Baldwin in the 1924 general election.
If an election were held now, Labour is projected to win 422 seats across the UK, which would also beat Tony Blair’s landslide for the party in 1997.
YouGov’s future MRP releases will reflect full lists of candidates once they are published.
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